Why The Referendum On Alberta's Municipal Ballots Is All Conservatives Can Think About
Opinion: October 18 is the next chance Albertans get to speak back to their provincial government — and that's a problem for conservatives
If you listen closely, you can hear the clock ticking.
On October 18, along with a ballot to elect mayors, councillors and school-board trustees, Albertans will get the chance to express their views on federal equalization in a provincial referendum. But what’s become surreal about this referendum is that while Alberta’s United Conservative Party pushed for it, today its very existence has become the party’s biggest liability. People are angry at Premier Jason Kenney and this might be a chance to tell him so. But understanding the threat the referendum now poses to conservatives is essential to realize why the push for Kenney to leave will intensify by the day and will likely come from within his party’s own ranks.
The reason is that the referendum — “Should section 36(2) of the Constitution Act, 1982 – Parliament and the government of Canada’s commitment to the principle of making equalization payments – be removed from the constitution?” — has shifted in its potential meaning. It began as a hoped-for dunk on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and an easily-won voice from the people of Alberta that would reject our (to borrow the UCP lines) income-tax dollars being redistributed to other provinces in Canada. The longer term hope seemed to be that the referendum result would spark a conversation about equalization with Ottawa, and that this might actually change the fundamental relationship that Alberta has in the federation.
The referendum also started, from this newsletter’s view, as a wedge issue the UCP put into play in order to drive those from their base who typically ignore municipal votes to show up and elect right-of-centre councils. We think of it as the no-more Nenshis and Ivesons ploy.
But today, the equalization referendum is like a time-bomb that Alberta conservatives have less than a month to diffuse. Simply put, it’s the next chance Albertans — who on Tuesday learned 29 people have died of COVID-19 complications in just the last day — will be given a microphone to speak back en masse to their government. The recent federal election, where the Conservative Party of Canada lost significant support in Alberta compared to 2019, was round one. The referendum is round two and it’s far more centred on Kenney. Albertan’s know he’s listening.
Conservatives get this threat. None other than the UCP’s vice-president of policy, Joel Mullan, had this to say about the referendum in his op-ed in the Western Standard, where he called for Kenney’s resignation:
If Jason Kenney continues as leader, I fear that it may have a negative effect on the equalization referendum this October. His deep unpopularity played a role in the defeat of several Conservative candidates in last night’s federal election, and it is entirely possible that many Albertans who otherwise oppose equalization, will vote against the referendum question in an effort to send him a message.
All of this feels obvious. But play the scenario through if you will to understand what some don’t seem to grasp. Were the referendum to be held and were Mullan to be right — that Albertans might show up and vote against the question just to send Kenney a message — the province’s conservative movement could be left with a result from the people that says exactly the opposite of what it’s been arguing with Ottawa, to varying degrees, for decades.
The ballots are printed and the referendum will happen. So what will happen if Kenney resists all the forces around him and remains in power by October 18, when we elect our next mayors, councillors and school trustees as well as offer our take on equalization? For this I asked political scientist Duane Bratt, in Calgary. Bratt has been speaking with conservatives off the record and sharing the spicier bits on Twitter of late. Bratt’s assessment was blunt:
I think the equalization referendum was damaged last night [in the federal election]. Relatively poor performance by the CPC. If Kenney is still around to campaign, the referendum becomes about him. And he will lose.
To put emphasis on one line there, “the referendum becomes about him.”
The referendum was never about Alberta wanting to take its own pulse on equalization. Instead it was about creating a spectacle that would force those outside the province to take its concerns about equalization — concerns this newsletter does not share, to be clear — seriously. It is for outside consumption.
In less than a month, if Kenney remains, Albertans could show up to the ballot box and pound the final nail in the fight against equalization in a very public way. Do not expect conservatives to just let that happen without a fight. And, fitting for Alberta in 2021, where every election seems to be about something else, or even another government, it will all happen at the same time we elect our councils and mayors.