The Main — May 18: Pieces, Policy and Politics
All politics may be local, but in Alberta they often end up being provincial
What will October look like in Alberta when we head to the polls to elect local governments? After last week anything is possible.
Last week was not a good one for Premier Jason Kenney. Central Peace-Notley MLA Todd Loewen’s public letter of resignation as caucus chair, and then the subsequent ouster of Loewen and Cypress-Medicine Hat MLA Drew Barnes from the United Conservative Party caucus, is likely to affect Kenney’s already weakened popularity. He already had the lowest approval rating of any premier in Canada.
Does Kenney’s diminished popularity matter for the municipal elections in October? Yes. As this newsletter has documented since February, and as this writer has examined longer than that, many have suggested the UCP’s changes to the Local Authorities Election Act and their insistence to use provincial referendum questions on October’s municipal ballots are a push to re-make the elections into a referendum on conservatism in Alberta. So went the theory many traded in that offering conservatives another chance to express grievances at a ballot box in October would result in a statement on provincial sentiment (likely through the referendum result) that Ottawa would have to listen to. The byproduct, in that original imagining of events, might also be that voters elect more conservative councillors and mayors in municipal governments.
But what now?
Since last summer, as the pandemic took hold and Kenney’s 2019 election-victory narrative of fighting back for the energy industry was changed beyond his control to fighting back a virus that portions of his base didn’t see as dangerous, polls and anecdotal evidence suggest the momentum has turned against big C conservatism and the premier in particular. And what this means for October, says Jared Wesley, an associate professor at the University of Alberta who also leads the Common Ground project, is that provincial politics are so central in 2021 that councillor and mayoral candidates will be asked if they align or differ with the UCP on policy. Ironically, if the initial push was to make the elections about provincial issues to benefit one party, those issues are now in the municipal election but may hurt the party that first wanted thisto be so.
“In some cases, the best laid plans never come to fruition,” Wesley says.
Where things get interesting when thinking about the municipal elections isn’t the personal politics but rather the policy politics. Kenney and the UCP are rolling out unpopular changes to the kindergarten to grade six curriculum. October represents the first poll since 2019 where Albertans will have a chance to express support or resistance to this, if indirectly. How so? School trustee races. “I think the sleeper issue is the curriculum,” Wesley says. “We’ve seen school trustees drawn into political conversations in a way we haven’t seen in a generation.”
Another interesting wrinkle is the get-out the vote dimension. As I’ve mentioned, there’s long been discussion that the UCP were hoping to use some of the tools they’ve put in place to drive conservatives to show up at the ballot box in October. This has already been balanced in some peoples’ eyes, through Calgary putting the use of fluoride in drinking water as a plebiscite onto the ballot, which could drive out the progressive or left side of the spectrum, given the evidence that shows fluoride in water is a good idea. Will there be any other judo moves within municipalities (this newsletter has heard rumours of other ballot items being mulled in several other cities, but we don’t report rumours)? We shall soon see.
There’s also the municipal-provincial friction on 9-1-1 dispatch that will almost surely force those running for council in municipalities affected by the unpopular provincial decision on consolidating this service to choose sides. And as Wesley says, there’s also the senate elections, which can often be a snooze but during times where there are elements of conservatism in disagreement (think the 2012 senate election) can come to be a race between provincial parties and their candidates.
As Wesley says, October’s vote may not be a litmus test for provincial politics but will likely be a policy test. “We have the curriculum debate for trustees. We have parks being a major issue for many municipalities across the province. Obviously we have EMS services and so on. We have rural doctors, which will be important in places like Rocky Mountain House,” he says. Candidates in municipal races are going to have to place themselves on one side or the other. “They’re going to have to take a position. In that they’re going to be drawn into provincial politics.”