Even in years that are not punctuated by a pandemic, a municipal election is not likely to turn any heads. Previously, these elections have lacked the partisan vigour that drives voters to the polls. Although political leanings are still present, in the past it was rare to see explicit partisan pitches regarding provincial or national issues. Local government was traditionally the domain of potholes, photo radar and getting your neighbour to stop using their leaf blower at 6:30 AM.
Municipal elections are often proxy battles fought out between the progressive (NDP and Liberal) and UCP and Wild Rose supporters. As we saw in the last Calgary mayoral election, where Mayor Nenshi was slated to lose, and the assumed loss due to his vocal opposition of the UCP.
When Naheed Nenshi went on to have a landslide victory, pundits and analysts crowed that it was a progressive triumph over a UCP worldview.
This year, the UCP is fighting a multi-front battle with the pandemic, the decline of oil revenue, and tremendous levels of unemployment. These issues affect all areas of the province, and the electorate is keenly attuned to the issues, if not always the reasons for them.
One battleground for the October election is the school board. COVID-19 has placed more scrutiny on school boards then ever before, meaning that incumbents, rather than being a vaguely familiar name on the ballot, may be called to account for their records on school outbreaks, masking restrictions, or PPE. This gives opponents an easy “report card” rebuttal in the form of policy changes or critiques.
On another front, the UCP changed campaign finance rules to allow for larger donations from $4000 to $5000 per candidate per campaign period. They’ve also increased the candidate’s contribution limit from $4000 to $10000, and now require surplus donations to be donated to charity rather than carried over to the next election cycle.
The most dramatic amendment was to amend the advertising rules in the Local Authorities Election Amendment Act, to allow political advertising and move financial disclosure due dates until after the election. NDP MLA Joe Cici called this change, “the Wild West, in terms of donations.”
The main advocacy group for Alberta’s cities, Alberta Urban Municipalities Association, raised concerns about these changes in a letter to the legislation governing municipal elections.
If that isn’t enough there is also the matter of a referendum on the ballot. Once again AUMA members voted in June of 2020 to keep the October votes focused on local politics. The provincial government is suggesting two national issues go to the polls: an equalization referendum and an election on Senate representatives, both recommendations of the Fair Deal Panel report.
The equalization referendum deals with removing the equalization principle from the Canadian Constitution. In the premier's own words, the vote is not actually about reforming the Constitution. He knows, though voters may not, that such an amendment would require the support of have-less provinces who receive equalization payments. Do we really think La Belle Province is going to sign up for that?
Instead, an equalization referendum is a strategic move to generate leverage on an issue—to have voters show popular support for an idea.
This probably won’t provide Kenney with the groundswell for which he hopes. Although popular opinion in Alberta is solidly against equalization payments, which have long been framed as us bailing out the rest of this deadbeat country—especially you, Quebec, there is still a matter of voter turnout. In Alberta, municipal elections rarely get above 40% turnout.
As for the senate referendum, that too is based on a populist notion of sticking it to Ottawa, rather than accomplishing anything beyond stoking the fires of Western alienation. Only a small group of “elected” nominees have ever been appointed to the Senate, and only when Conservatives are in power federally. Prime Minister Trudeau has established his own independent selection process for senators, and is expected to fill any vacancies prior to Alberta's election. The next opening for an Alberta seat will be 2027.
For an in-depth look at the history of senatorial elections, RATM’s Tim Querengesser did a deep dive in last week’s newsletter.
So in summation the next municipal election is shaping up to be the battle of Alberta. School boards face more polemics than ever before, cities are unhappy about the changes to election laws that allow more partisan dollars to flow in to candidates, reduced transparency for who is funding those campaigns, and the virtue signalling at play with the national referendums.
Movie Review: Calgary in Crisis
Candice Malcom in “Calgary in Crisis”
This 40-minute documentary by True North Centre (a right-wing think tank based in Ontario) doesn’t take long to fulfill the promise of its title. Calgary, we are told, is empty, depressed, dismal, and doomed. The documentary’s reporter, Candice Malcolm, looks into the camera with a maudlin expression usually reserved for Save-the-Children campaigns as she describes her love for the energy in the city, which she felt when she came to visit from Ontario in the past.
In the past few months, whether or not Calgary has become a vacant ghost town haunted by the dying dreams of their middle class has been a somewhat contentious issue. Stephanie Kusie, MP for Calgary Midapore seems to be of the opinion that it is, and that government (though she doesn’t say which government) has killed industry. Former conservative political strategist Stephen Carter took issue with this sentiment.
The documentary begins with a voiceover while images of the oil industry flash across the screen. We see refineries and railcars. “The fact is that Alberta’s economy isn’t tied to the oil and gas industry — it IS the oil and gas industry,” the narrator says.
We are reminded of stories that are sadly too common for Alberta, like the ‘energy exodus’ created by oil and gas companies fleeing the country and leaving behind record unemployment. Malcolm says Calgary, a city that was once to her “full of interesting people at the frontier of the energy industry” is now in record decline. She ties the resurgence of the Western separatist movement to frustrations with the economy.
There is an opening story from an Iranian immigrant who moved to Calgary after hearing positive reviews from her brother. The documentary reports that she worked as an ESL teacher and is fluent in four languages but has struggled to get a job in Calgary after losing her teaching position.
The most interesting part of the film, for this viewer at least, was the brief history of the oil industry and how it shaped Calgary. Early oil reserves were found in Turner Valley, leading to the first pipelines being built. However, the real boom time came in 1973 when OPEC announced an oil embargo following the US objection to the Yom Kippur War, which caused a global energy crisis as prices for gasoline shot through the roof.
The short film interviews a litany of familiar conservative voices like Theo Fleury and Brett Wilson.
Grace Yan, a commercial real estate agent who is now a Calgary mayoral candidate, makes an appearance. Yan wants to attract investment to the city through tax breaks and other incentives. She also lists plans to turn vacant downtown buildings into housing as part of a broader revitalization effort. Yan shows Malcom around the downtown core.
“I was just in Toronto. No one seems to see this recession … it appears that it is a bigger Alberta problem that something really needs to be done not two years from now but today. We are heading towards Detroit,” says Yan, in the film.
Detroit is evoked several times in the film, actually — juxtaposed with footage from the auto manufacturing glory days. Ominous music plays while shaky shots of empty offices flash across the screen.
Premier Jason Kenney makes an appearance in the documentary to discuss global oil prices and economic flight. “If we don’t develop and sell our resources, the Saudis and the Russians will,” Kenney says.
The documentary seems to avoid certain realities that weaken its overall argument. In so doing it comes off as hopelessly partisan. Even history is viewed through a partisan lens. John A. Macdonald? Conservative. Wilfrid Laurier? Liberal and bad.
Any work done by conservative political parties is praised, and any failures that occur when they are in power, such as Husky laying off 1,000 workers in 2019 are covered without any editorializing.
Overall, this narrative is too one-sided to give the viewer anything to do with the information provided. Although Malcolm quips that Calgarians are resilient, this thought is completely at odds with the evidence presented in the film, in which Calgary is a victim of a plot by outside agitators, be they environmentalists or competing energy resources. As a viewer I’m left uncertain of the takeaway. Is it just that things are bad? Is it that Calgary is on its own in a country that doesn’t care? There are no solutions, just a pity party that reaffirms the idea that yes, things are terrible.
You can expect to see these talking points continue as we continue in this municipal election season. Remember “Diotte or Detroit”?
Calgary in Crisis critic’s response:
Markham Hislop, from Energi media, has reacted to the documentary on Twitter. Hislop often offers counter-narratives to common commentary about the oil and gas industry in Alberta. RATM reached out to Hislop for his perspective on the film.
“There is a dominant political narrative around Alberta oil and gas that is populist at heart. Populism requires enemies that threaten "the people," who are portrayed as victims. Foreign-funded anti-oil activists, Justin Trudeau and the federal government, for example. This narrative is very angry, loud, and aggressive. "Calgary in Crisis" is just one more in a long line of so-called documentaries based on this narrative. It even features some of the same personalities.
The danger of this narrative is that it sucks all the oxygen out of the public conversation about Alberta's future. Albertans are so busy complaining about who's being mean to them that there's no space for discussing real threats, like the energy transition and the imminent decline of the oil and gas sector. The fact we're even having this conversation demonstrates how political nonsense like "Calgary in Crisis" achieves its goals.” Markham Hislop
Also this week: Paid subscribers-post on how the gun control debate is affecting municipalities.
CORRECTIONS
In the recent newsletter we ran a story we called Big Box Ballot. It looked at part of the history of Alberta ‘electing’ senators during municipal elections.
We got two things wrong.
One, the 1998 Alberta municipal elections that featured a vote for a senators was not the first time the province had voted for senators. We never made that claim in the story but a reader could infer it, and we should have made it clearer. The first election that saw municipal voters elect councillors and mayors as well as ‘elect’ senators in Alberta was held in 1989.
Two, the final line of the story got it wrong, too. We wrote: “The provincial election that Morton won was, of course, held on its own dedicated day rather than sidelined by symbolic referendum questions.” This is actually false. Morton was elected MLA in an election that also had simultaneous Senate elections in Alberta.
We regret the error.